01 Oct 2019
Winchester Market Trends 9 19

Did you just lose $100,000 in potential equity?

Everyone always wants to know in which direction our local real estate market is trending.  Potential buyers and sellers are seemingly most focused on trying to time the market with accurate precision.  Sadly they often get their information from inaccurate sources, including but not limited to their family and friends.  Also in trying so hard to time the market with accurate precision, often times buyers and sellers focus on too narrow of a market snapshot and in doing so they miss out on the greater trend, thus costing them potential equity!  The market often experiences short lived seasonal negative adjustments, when it is actually really still on a long term upward trend.

Over the past several years many buyers that have been sitting the fence, in the hopes that we will see another real estate crash or downturn in our near future.  Many of these buyers have now missed out on huge amounts of potential equity; for as they have been procrastinating trying to precisely time the market, hoping that we would experience a downturn, our local Temecula Valley and Winchester Housing Markets have actually enjoyed really nice gains.

At a first glance the numbers in the short term chart above look as if our local Winchester Housing Market might be on a downturn.  The Median List Price is September was down from  1 year ago by roughly $10,000, but also up by roughly $6,000 from just one month back.  Whereas Median Days on Market in September were up by just two days from 1 year ago and by 6 days from just last month.  What is really interesting though is that the Median Price Per Square Foot is down by $1 from just one year ago and yet up by $6 from last month.  So really these numbers are all over the board.  The important thing to keep in mind here though, is that the chart above is referencing the Median and not the Average…confusing right? *click here median vs. average.

Now what is really exciting is that if you look at our local Temecula Valley and Winchester Housing Markets with a much broader view, you would be excited to see that our average home prices are now very close to, if not slightly higher than, what they were way back at their peak in 2006!  So now let all the hopeful downward market praying fence sitters sing!  Right lol!

Surely if housing prices are back close to our previous pre-crash values, then surely another crash must be close upon the horizon!  Now I am no fortune teller, but I do beg to differ, because back between 2003-2006 housing prices were soaring at a mind boggling pace!  Those huge gains occurred over such a short and unsustainable time period, not to mention the fact that most of those gains occurred thanks to terrible lending practices!  Plus what took just two years to erase has not taken roughly 13 years to regenerate!  (*paraphrased from Gene Wunderlich’s recent in depth Realtor Report) Also and most thankfully, not only have we been experiencing a long term slow and steady growing housing market, but also our banks and lenders have actually been writing really solid and conservative loans.

Could I be wrong?  Why yes, I just might be!  But I highly doubt it!  What is really crazy and cool is that our neighbor purchased their French Valley Winchester home just about three years ago for $350,000, guess what they just sold it for two months back?  They sold it for $460,000!  What is even crazier is that a model match on that same street is just now about to close for a whopping $480,000!!!  Which proves my point that those buyers who have been sitting on the fence over these past few years probably cost themselves around $100,000 in equity that they would have gained had they purchased way back when!

If you are thinking of buying or selling a home in and or around Southern California, please, please, please, do not take the advice of your neighbors, or family, or friends; consult a professional Realtor instead.  Actually give me a call because I can recommend you to one of the best around, one that has over 17 years of experience…can you guess who that is?

Lol! I hope you smiled after reading that last line, as I know the important info above can be quite boring…but I can guarantee it to be quite valuable!

Thank you,


Jason M. Gailliot
Marketing Director / Realtor
McDermott Realty Group
Over 800 Homes Sold!
909-286-1947 cell
888-800-8513 hotline
888-891-2449 fax 

CA BRE# 01353647


*statistics and graphs taken from Movoto.com

Post a comment